REAL ESTATE: ” A Bubble blows – month by month ” From 2002 to 2012

REAL ESTATE: ” A  Bubble blows – month by month ” From 2002 to 2012

Thursday, January 10, 2013
Below are the monthly average prices for detached homes presented in the Vancouver Average Sale Price Chart you see above.
 
Starting in 2002 until now.
 
It’s the evolution of our housing bubble charted month by month over 10 years from $363,900 in January 2002 to the current high in February 2012 at $1,235,200 and it’s downward slide since.
 
Somewhat mesmerizing, isn’t it?
DEC/12 –     $1,078,500
NOV/12 –     $1,053,900
OCT/12 –     $1,116,100
SEP/12 –      $1,119,200
AUG/12 –     $1,142,200
JUL/12 –      $1,041,300
JUN/12 –      $1,061,100
MAY/12 –    $1,073,300
APR/12 –     $1,106,600
MAR/12 –    $1,155,500
FEB/12 –      $1,235,200  — the current high!
JAN/12 –      $1,145,900
———————————-
DEC/11 –     $1,064,200
NOV/11 –     $1,134,900
OCT/11 –     $1,162,300
SEP/11 –      $1,104,800
AUG/11 –     $1,162,200
JUL/11 –      $1,133,300
JUN/11 –      $1,215,200
MAY/11 –    $1,223,400
APR/11 –     $1,204,500
MAR/11 –    $1,155,000
FEB/11 –     $1,173,300
JAN/11 –     $1,144,500
—————————————–
DEC/10 –    $1,046,300
NOV/10 –    $1,043,100
OCT/10 –    $1,058,500
SEP/10 –     $1,016,300
AUG/10 –    $999,400
JUL/10 –     $941,200
JUN/10 –     $970,500
MAY/10 –    $955,100
APR/10 –     $1,003,800
MAR/10 –    $1,002,000
FEB/10 –     $963,100
JAN/10 –     $950,700
—————————————-
DEC/09 –    $952,900
NOV/09 –    $903,400
OCT/09 –    $913,900
SEP/09 –     $872,100
AUG/09 –    $890,000
JUL/09 –     $824,400
JUN/09 –     $819,200
MAY/09 –   $831,100
APR/09 –    $816,800
MAR/09 –   $792,500
FEB/09 –     $763,200
JAN/09 –     $782,900
————————————–
DEC/08 –    $813,700
NOV/08 –    $745,700
OCT/08 –    $825,200
SEP/08 –     $790,000
AUG/08 –    $808,000
JUL/08 –     $828,700
JUN/08 –     $904,100
MAY/08 –   $887,500
APR/08 –    $880,800
MAR/08 –   $918,500
FEB/08 –     $920,600
JAN/08 –     $877,200
————————————–
DEC/07 –    $810,900
NOV/07 –    $813,100
OCT/07 –    $850,000
SEP/07 –     $819,800
AUG/07 –    $856,100
JUL/07 –     $831,200
JUN/07 –     $809,300
MAY/07 –   $852,400
APR/07 –    $794,300
MAR/07 –   $785,200
FEB/07 –     $743,200
JAN/07 –     $761,100
—————————————
DEC/06 –    $775,700
NOV/06 –    $765,300
OCT/06 –    $795,800
SEP/06 –     $741,600
AUG/06 –    $749,200
JUL/06 –     $730,800
JUN/06 –     $718,700
MAY/06 –   $716,200
APR/06 –     $701,900
MAR/06 –    $699,900
FEB/06 –      $705,100
JAN/06 –      $655,900
—————————————-
DEC/05 –     $627,500
NOV/05 –     $609,600
OCT/05 –     $624,300
SEP/05 –      $630,300
AUG/05 –     $607,100 
JUL/05 –      $596,100
JUN/05 –      $580,000
MAY/05 –    $588,900
APR/05 –     $555,400
MAR/05 –    $563,900
FEB/05 –      $542,600
JAN/05 –      $524,300
—————————————
DEC/04 –     $532,000
NOV/04 –     $525,600
OCT/04 –     $549,700
SEP/04 –      $538,400
AUG/04 –     $525,700
JUL/04 –      $521,800
JUN/04 –      $542,700
MAY/04 –    $530,300
APR/04 –     $532,500
MAR/04 –    $516,600
FEB/04 –      $504,400
JAN/04 –      $495,900
—————————————
DEC/03 –     $475,100
NOV/03 –     $493,300
OCT/03 –     $479,800
SEP/03 –      $472,400
AUG/03 –     $457,100
JUL/03 –      $428,600
JUN/03 –      $436,900
MAY/03 –    $433,600
APR/03 –     $438,600
MAR/03 –    $426,700
FEB/03 –      $434,000
JAN/03 –      $422,700
————————————–
DEC/02 –     $395,500
NOV/02 –     $403,700
OCT/02 –     $396,400
SEP/02 –      $398,100
AUG/02 –     $399,000
JUL/02 –      $390,500
JUN/02 –      $398,100
MAY/02 –    $400,500
APR/02   –   $399,000
MAR/02  –   $393,000
FEB/02   –    $389,700
JAN/02   –    $363,900 —  ********* This represents just over a 70% drop from the Feb. 2012 peak  of  $1,235,200
The dot com crash occurred in 2000, the terrorist attacks of 9/11 in 2001. 
Then came the great stimulus initiatives of 2002 which spawned the North American housing bubbles.

“They have mouths, but do not speak; they have eyes, but do not see”
   – Psalm 135:16
===========================================================================================================
COMMENT:
I LOVE these sorts of posts…..simple data laid out chronologically , very easy to read and interpret,  with a few choice ” Grade A ” points.
For us amateurs that follow this type of data….the conclusions are it is NO coincidence re: various manipulated economic BUBBLES. This is the sad litany of history…the various markets are juiced.
The Dot. Com market will be looked upon as pure insanity, even morseo than the Dutch Tulip Bulb market mania several hundred years ago. Any idiot in the 1990’s that produced any  “Hi – Tech” sounding stock aka “Dot .Com X____” seemed to get rich on an IPO.
In hindsight….one starts to realize this is all a game/ponzi scheme pumped up by the Elite Interests. Bait and lure lots of suckers. The vast majority of these stocks are near worthless now…if they haven’t collapsed and faded into history..can you say NorTel…even  Bre-X ?
The only benefit is to understand the historical PONZI SCHEME…”PUMP and D-U-M-P”. I learned a loooonng time ago that its the insiders that gain….it doesn’t matter the stock, the ( Initial Public Offering ) IPO is often BS.
The core game has various manifestations……often if the stock market swooned….coincidentally the Real Estate market rose..and vice versa.
However, as opposed to a more cloistered venue…ie a given  “stock” which may involve a limited number of “suckers”…the far more potent and hence disasterous ponzi -scheme of “Real Estate” has lured literally millions of     ” investors ” at a global scale. 
Unlike stock markets, where the “greater fools” numbers are limited to a given and select pool of greed…..Real Estate has been the” Global Stock  IPO”…whereby MILLIONS of People have gambled..but BILLIONS of individuals are now being obligated to cover the losses…now and in the future….via Gov’t bailouts.
If you understand  these concepts, and how it has negatively impacted the majority of us for centuries in a geo-political  “inflationary fiat – currency economy” ………good !
To put this in perspective, on 2000 a family member built  a new house in a new subdivision in South Surrey. All in the cost was less than $ 400,000 . 
However, this was pre 9-11. This was another moment in time to juice the US economy to act as a distraction while the US was turning into  a Police State. Duly note 2006, when prices began to accelerate in Canada, about time the US market bubble was deflating. The Federal Gov’t was lobbied to allow the CMHC to insure risky bank loans. Cheap credit always ends up a disaster, speculation goes rampant.  We see that the bubble maxed out  approx. one year ago FEB/12 –      $1,235,200  . The average price is DOWN approx. $ 200,000 a year later.
How low will it go ? Who knows ? Could it be 2006 prices….?  Or why not 2000 prices? Some had speculated there is no reason that prices could not collapse 70%. Once speculation and all indications of money laundering are pulled, it goes back to the old formula which is a average house price is approx.  3 X’s the average family income for that area.
We have reached levels in excess of 10X’s, which is not sustainable. The problem is, there are people that want to sell, have no mortgage, but see the writing on the wall, and do not want to get stuck, and will chase the market down. Example…they may have bought 50 years ago…..say for $25,000. The peak price may have gone up to $1,200,000. The price now may be $1,000,000….but no offers.  The seller goes to  $ 950,000 and prepared to go even to $875,000. There is nothing worse than be stuck on a peak price. (NOTE: Keep in mind that if you want to downsize , what you wish to buy is also much cheaper…so its all relative.)
As I noted before….when a market collapses, the speed of de-celeration can overshoot what the normal market price should be…aka if it should be ” $500,000 “, the buyers back off till it hits $450,000..then it slowly creeps to $500,000. 
I have seen this before.  In the early 1980’s the housing market got so ridiculous that many parties we knew could not afford to buy into the cities they grew up in, and are scattered all over Metro Vancouver.
Fasten you seatbelts !
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