Vancouver Price Drop:Recycling Stats – July 31, 2012

Vancouver Price Drop:Recycling Stats – July 31, 2012

Documenting Vancouver real estate price movements

Recycling Stats – July 31, 2012

2 Comments Posted by on August 2, 2012

Here are the latest stats showing how many new listings are actually recycled listings that had been previously pulled.  The first number for each month shows the number of newly listed properties that are actually recycled and the second number shows what % of “new listings” were actually recycled.  In the spirit of the olympic games I have awarded Gold, Silver and Bronze medals to the top 3 from each month with at least 100 new listings

Overall recycling rates have gone from 17.0% in April to 20.2% in May, 24.6% in June and now 27.5% in July

Region April May June July
West Vancouver 51 21.3% 72 26.1% 73 34.8% 59 35.3%
Chilliwack 12 24.0% 5 12.8% 8 24.2% 8 33.3%
Richmond 177 21.4% 232 27.4% 237 31.4% 204 33.1%
North Vancouver 67 14.2% 93 18.0% 101 24.3% 103 32.4%
Vancouver West 283 21.2% 389 24.8% 377 29.9% 320 31.9%
Maple Ridge 56 20.5% 99 27.1% 86 26.5% 78 31.8%
Burnaby 136 17.7% 162 21.0% 186 25.1% 171 29.4%
Hope and Region 5 12.8% 6 15.8% 2 11.1% 12 27.9%
Langley 69 13.5% 89 16.3% 105 22.0% 116 27.8%
White Rock 79 16.0% 120 22.5% 110 23.3% 123 26.8%
North Surrey 48 12.9% 66 17.1% 69 20.3% 85 26.6%
Port Coquitlam 27 14.7% 37 19.2% 35 19.0% 41 26.6%
Coquitlam 53 12.5% 85 17.2% 97 22.5% 99 25.9%
New Westminster 35 14.0% 54 20.0% 52 21.1% 45 25.9%
Abbotsford 79 17.9% 70 16.0% 93 22.0% 89 25.6%
Tsawwassen 6 9.1% 6 8.7% 9 16.4% 16 25.4%
North Delta 10 9.3% 15 12.5% 19 15.3% 27 25.2%
Port Moody 29 20.9% 38 26.2% 47 29.9% 31 24.6%
Surrey 77 13.6% 84 14.8% 116 21.2% 138 24.4%
Squamish 23 25.6% 11 8.6% 46 32.9% 21 24.4%
Cloverdale 30 12.7% 44 17.5% 53 24.4% 55 23.9%
Mission 31 20.4% 44 21.2% 34 22.1% 35 23.2%
Vancouver East 95 16.3% 140 20.4% 133 21.8% 103 22.3%
Pitt Meadows 13 18.6% 6 10.3% 11 13.8% 12 21.4%
Kent 7 21.2% 6 10.0% 9 33.3% 7 21.2%
Sunshine Coast 24 13.4% 31 12.4% 26 14.6% 32 18.9%
Whistler Pemberton 11 10.1% 13 8.8% 15 12.8% 21 17.5%
Ladner 6 12.0% 6 10.0% 11 18.6% 5 11.4%
TOTAL 1539 17.0% 2023 20.2% 2160 24.6% 2056 27.5%
====================================================================================
COMMENT:
In interpreting the graph, the premise is the numbers reflect recycled listings. Or, on average, 25% of all current listings are UNsold properties that have re – listed. These properties were, in all likelihood, listed several months ago, during the spring season one of the peak buying seasons. If they haven’t sold by then, the market is saying either the price is too high and/or the buyers supply is much lower.
“Recycling” in this market implies lower asking price. It gets quite interesting trying to comb through the info. If 25% are recycled, then that implies 75% are new.  However the 75% own listing price must be reflective of the 25% failure.
For Example…if the Recycled Listings AVERAGE price was originally $1 MILLION….and the recycled Listings are on average $800,000…the 75% of New Listings would likely follow suit at $800,000.  However, now we have a glut at the $800,000 price as benchmark. Now what?
We have to keep in mind that there are no more bidding wars, one’s logic must shift in reverse. The limited pool of buyers have a lot of choice….and could easily feel out the more desperate sellers out of a short list of potential purchases. It would not be unexpected that “a”  buyer could sell for $699,000.  Now a new benchmark is set.
In this type of economic environment, it could be the dreaded “chase the market down”. I would submit most of those selling are not fishing or speculating…they want to sell …….or need to sell.
This type of dynamic simply snowballs, especially in the condo market…as many bought them for speculative reasons and are highly leveraged and are already “underwater” aka paid more than it is currently worth…as peak price was a long time ago.  Now they are trying to minimize their losses and will get desperate.
IMHO: If the recycling % increases, it would imply sheer desperation by the sellers, but I also sense there is a HUGE backlog of Real Estate Sellers behind the Dam that have not yet listed whereby the pressure is building and they will have no choice but to further flood the already flooded market.
Advertisements
Gallery | This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s